Wednesday, November 5, 2008
How did the Polls do this year?
A chart showing Obama's performance in the election relative to the filtered average of polls in the state before election night. The CI lines show the 95% confidence intervals of the poll average.
The only important outcomes that were outside the margin of error were in Nevada, North Dakota, and Iowa. And out of so many states, that's to be expected.
I'm going to run a regression on the residuals to see what I can find, but in the meantime, the interested can see the spreadsheet here.