Israel Update

It seems that I predicted the number of seats in the (Arab+Kadima+Labor+Meretz) coalition perfectly at 55 seats. I also correctly predicted that Gil and the Greens would miss the electoral threshold necessary to receive a seat.

I can't brag too much though, since I never released any party specific breakdowns, mainly since I couldn't get a good handle on individual party volatility. (As shown by the surprise shift from Labor to Kadima).

So far, with 99% of the votes counted, the break-down(in order of left to right) is:

Arab Parties: 11
Meretz: 3
Labor: 13
Kadima:28

Likud:27
Yisrael Bitenu:15
Shas:11
Haredi Parties: 12

Everyone is talking about Yisrael Bitenu's role as a "King-Maker", but I'd give that prize to Shas. Yisrael Bitenu can't fit in any majority grouping outside of the right.

Yisrael Bitenu is not going to be in a coalition with the Arab parties, for obvious reasons, without the Arab parties, Meretz+Labor+Kadima + Yisrael Bitenu = 59 seats=Not a majority.

And as for their place on in a right-wing coalition, Shas hates them. And if Shas defects to the traditional left-block, then it would push the left to a majority.

So, if anything, I'd say Shas is the king-maker. Shas could easily fit with Kadima or Likud, since it's demands are mainly unrelated to the peace-process(More religious funding, less pork shops, etc). The question is whether they would coalition with the arab parties.

Obviously, Netanyahu is probably the next prime minister. But, we'll see, coalition politics is weird...