Preliminary Judgement

While it's very important to wait for certified returns, it's now possible to get an idea of how our forecasts performed yesterday.

I'll write out more commentary and thoughts later, but I've got some errands to run and just wanted to get the raw data out there.

First, a summary:



We did better, but the difference between Pollster's performance and ours isn't large enough to be conclusive with so few races.

FiveThirtyEight didn't post margin estimates this year, only putting up probabilities derived from what could be described as a decision rule procedure. We didn't forecast the same races, but looking at the ones we both covered and comparing likelihood:



With only 5 4 races, this doesn't convey much information either. Still, I reserve bragging rights...

More soon!