Today Senator Thune of South Dakota announced that he wouldn't seek the GOP Presidential nomination in 2012. While Sen. Thune's support topped out at 3% in early GOP primary opinion polling, he'd been widely considered an insider favorite. This has reflected in the betting markets, where his odds to win the GOP nomination have traded as high as 25%. Even yesterday, Sen. Thune had been the fourth-ranking candidate on Intrade, placing behind only former Governor Romney of Massachusetts, former Vice Presidential Candidate and Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska and Governor Daniels of Indiana.
But in the aftermath of his announcement not to run, Thune's odds have collapsed from 9 percent to .4%.
Elections are zero-sum, so it's interesting to see who this has benefited:
The two main beneficiaries of Thune's dropout seem to have been former Governor Pawlenty of Minnesota and Governor Barbour of Mississippi. These two candidates have one thing in common: Like Thune, they are currently second-tier candidates who replicate the appeal of better established candidates who will need to drop out or become scandal prone in order for themselves to gain traction.
The problem with this theory is that former Governor Huntsman of Utah and Governor Daniels of Indiana have not gained any ground on the betting markets. A possible explanation is that Thune's announcement was cancelled out by concurrent events: A poll showing that Huntsman 50 points behind Romney in Utah, and Daniels' decision to compromise with Indiana Democrats and drop a controversial right-to-work bill that could hurt his primary appeal.
It'll be interesting to see if the markets stabilize or if prices converge to match the reality reflected in polling.
But in the aftermath of his announcement not to run, Thune's odds have collapsed from 9 percent to .4%.
Elections are zero-sum, so it's interesting to see who this has benefited:
The two main beneficiaries of Thune's dropout seem to have been former Governor Pawlenty of Minnesota and Governor Barbour of Mississippi. These two candidates have one thing in common: Like Thune, they are currently second-tier candidates who replicate the appeal of better established candidates who will need to drop out or become scandal prone in order for themselves to gain traction.
The problem with this theory is that former Governor Huntsman of Utah and Governor Daniels of Indiana have not gained any ground on the betting markets. A possible explanation is that Thune's announcement was cancelled out by concurrent events: A poll showing that Huntsman 50 points behind Romney in Utah, and Daniels' decision to compromise with Indiana Democrats and drop a controversial right-to-work bill that could hurt his primary appeal.
It'll be interesting to see if the markets stabilize or if prices converge to match the reality reflected in polling.
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